Today, Google opened up Meridian, their new Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) tool, to the general public. This is an interesting development, to say the least. It had been in closed beta for a while, so it’s great to finally see what’s under the hood.
As a former marketing student, I remember when Media or Marketing Mix Modeling was seen as something done by old-school agencies and marketing departments before the rise of the Internet.
However, the more practical experience you gain running campaigns, the more you see the need for a deeper understanding of performance. Simply put, attributing results to the “halo effect” is a lazy explanation.
According to Google’s documentation, “Meridian uses a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to sample from the posterior distribution.”
So, why has Google built an MMM tool?
In summary, to make it easier for marketing teams to secure more budget for YouTube and Google ATL ad products.
Essentially, marketing teams must build a case for ad spend, which is particularly challenging for video and programmatic channels. The reason for this is that users typically view ads and convert at a later time.
Even in 2025, many financial decisions are still made based on measuring clicks, even though this does not account for the entire marketing mix. Marketers need more advanced tools to justify budgets for upper-funnel ATL campaigns.
Search and Other Google Owned Platforms
Some campaigns and sectors see research and upper-funnel terms deliver strong performance when modeled correctly. Even high-cost generic search terms can drive direct or in-store sales without registering conversions on the ad platform or online tracking tool.
The Problems with MMM and Regression Analysis
The core issue that typically arises is the age-old correlation versus causation question.
Additionally, measuring the long-term impact of advertising frequency combined with organic social marketing is extremely challenging.
For example, it could take five or more years of continuous campaigns to reach the critical mass needed to build a brand that generates significant conversions from direct website traffic or point-of-sale (POS).
In theory, using MMM data and incorporating correlation test groups could provide clearer insights into the effectiveness of each channel. However, in practice, the time horizon of marketing effectiveness will likely blur the results.
Advertising is a Subset of Marketing – Paid Media Is Only a Part of Marketing Success
A viral video, a founder with millions of followers, a brand with strong consumer trust that doesn’t advertise, organic marketing, SEO, and other non-paid strategies can sometimes be more impactful than paid media in the marketing mix.
MMM often struggles to account for these factors. There are countless case studies of brands driving revenue through non-paid media sources, but measuring their impact alongside paid media remains challenging.
As a result, MMM cannot provide a complete picture.
The Broad Marketing Mix – Self-Service Platforms
Real-time self-service platforms do require a degree of MMM, as it helps marketers get closer to the truth. The marketing mix available to most companies has never been this large.
Brands now have access to Spotify, YouTube, social media, programmatic ads, native ads, push and pop notifications, app install ads, VoD, TV, radio, search, and even outdoor advertising—all on demand. MMM is a valuable method for evaluating channels, but it’s important to remember that it’s not the be-all and end-all.
Ultimately, you are optimizing the thought process and emotions of your customer.
As experienced advertisers say: your product or service is not the product—your customer is.
Meridian from Google Conclusion
Hopefully, this will help marketers secure more budget for upper-funnel campaigns. However, if this works as intended in an ideal world, lower-funnel ad auctions on Google Search might become less competitive—though this is unlikely.
You can check out Meridian on Google’s developer site or GitHub.
Overall, because Meridian is backed by Google’s credibility, marketers can use it to justify decisions and request additional budget—even from the most risk-averse and cautious C-suites.
The kind of thing your CEO, CFO, and COO will appreciate.
